America’s Obesity Crisis Intensifies.

The number of people in the United States who are overweight or obese has been climbing for years, and that excess weight has serious and costly health consequences. So, the projections from a highly respected team of scientists about obesity in America’s future are disconcerting at best.

After conducting national surveys and correcting for our tendency to underestimate our weight in surveys, the scientists discovered that in as many as 29 states, the prevalence of obesity will exceed 50 percent by 2030. In addition, they project that no state will have less than 35 percent of its residents who are obese.

The bottom line is that within the next ten years nearly one in two adults in the US will be obese. Further, the team projects that nearly one in four Americans will be severely obese by 2030.

The team’s report, Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity, was published in The New England Journal of Medicine in December and suggests that the prevalence of severe obesity is expected to be higher than one in four in 25 states. Further, severe obesity is projected to be the most common weight category among the nation’s women, non-Hispanic, black and low-income adults.

Obesity will exceed 50 percent by 2030. – The New York Times

This study’s results mirror those of a study presented in the September 2012 “F as in Fat” report. That report, released by the Trust for America’s Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, also predicted that half of US adults will be obese by 2030.

Obesity is dangerous. It is linked to a substantial number of negative health effects, including high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, heart disease and stroke, sleep apnea and breathing problems, osteoarthritis, gallbladder disease, mental illnesses such as depression and anxiety and certain cancers, including endometrial, breast, colon, kidney, gallbladder and liver cancer.

The “F as in Fat” report projected that there will be as many as 7.9 million new cases of diabetes a year by 2030, compared with 1.9 million new cases a year in 2012. They suggest there could also be 6.8 million new cases of chronic heart disease and stroke each year, compared with 1.3 million cases in 2012.

Obesity is also expensive. A study conducted in 2013 estimated that the medical cost of obesity totaled $342.2 billion per year. The study also determined that the indirect cost of obesity due to lost productivity came to another $8.65 billion per year. And that was in 2013. Those amounts are likely much higher in 2020.

Obesity is a leading cause of preventable illness, disability and life-years lost in the United States. It is responsible for about one in five deaths, nearly as many as smoking. That makes it an official public health crisis in this country. But what makes us obese?

In general, we’re considered overweight or obese when our weight is higher than a normal weight adjusted for height. Body Mass Index, or BMI, is the tool used for measuring this. BMI, which is related to the amount of fat in our bodies, is defined as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared. A BMI of 30 to 39 is considered obese. A BMI of 40 or higher is extremely obese. The higher our BMI, the greater our risk for developing the health problems associated with obesity.

There are several factors that contribute to obesity, but the bottom line is that we become obese when we consistently consume more calories than we burn through normal daily activity. What we eat also plays a role. Foods that are high in fat, sugar and salt cause weight gain. And most of us eat portions that are larger than necessary to satisfy our hunger.

Our genes also play a role. Genetics is a factor in how much body fat we store, where it’s distributed and how efficiently our bodies metabolize the food we eat into energy.

Medical disorders such as Prader-Willi syndrome, a genetic condition, Cushing’s syndrome, a hormone disorder, and arthritis can lead to decreased activity and weight gain. In addition, certain medications including some antidepressants, anti-seizure drugs, steroids and beta-blockers can cause an increase in weight.

Lifestyle and behavioral factors such as a lack of physical activity, smoking, lack of sleep and an unhealthy diet also contribute to the development of obesity. Social and economic factors include not having enough money to buy healthy foods or access to stores that sell healthier food options. Another socioeconomic factor is not having access to a safe place to exercise.

Obesity is a major public health crisis in America that impacts more than 100 million adults and children and is projected to increase dramatically by 2030. Fortunately, obesity and the health and financial consequences associated with it are largely preventable, and that should be our goal.

Steps we can take to help prevent obesity include limiting calorie intake from total fats, shifting away from saturated fats to unsaturated fats. In addition, we can increase our intake of fruits and vegetables, legumes, whole grains and nuts and limit our intake of sugar. We also have to boost the number of calories we burn each day by increasing our physical activity. Health officials recommend at least 30 minutes of regular, moderate-intensity activity on most days.

But it will take more than willpower to change the future. There are already federal and state programs in place to educate about making healthy food and exercise choices and to counter fast food and soda marketing. Additional education and more firepower against the big-money fast-food conglomerates is still needed. Our country’s health, now and in the future, depends on it!

It’s easy to get obsessed with personal numbers these days. Put on a wearable like a Fitbit and see what I mean. The devices track your number of steps during the day, gauge your heartbeat, and record the amount of time you’ve slept at night. They can log your walking routes, with maps, and reveal how fast your feet were really moving.

You can sync to an app that records the calories you take in, for more fun with numbers. (Warning: if you’re trying to lose weight, the daily summary may be less encouraging on days you eat more. You might get something like this: “If every day were like today, you’ll reach your goal by April 18, 2022.” No consolation added if your big reunion is six months away.)

Of course, doctors will remind you that losing extra weight isn’t just about wearing a smaller dress size. The big payoff is better health.

In that regard, if you like tracking your progress in losing weight and getting fit, you might want to try using one of the simple health-screening tools that gauge risk for conditions like diabetes and heart disease.

The health-screening methods – that use BMI, waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio – are based on research that shows body size and shape influences risk of certain diseases.

And they’re pretty simple. All you’ll need to get started is a scale and cloth measuring tape. Once you know where you stand, working toward “low risk” is another goal to strive for.

1. BMI: You’ve probably heard of body mass index, or BMI. The index categorizes people in ranges from normal to super obese. BMI is a formula that includes a ratio of weight and height. The easiest way to crunch the numbers is to use an online BMI calculator, such as this one.

Risk of poorer health goes up for people with BMIs that indicate they are overweight. It climbs higher still for those in the obese category.

A warning, though: For people who are lean and muscular, there may be a hitch. Their BMI can indicate “overweight” or “obese” when they aren’t. This is because muscle weighs more than fat, so their total weight is higher. They aren’t fat, but the BMI formula doesn’t distinguish between toned muscles and flab.

2. Waist circumference: How big is your middle? Where you carry extra weight makes a difference, according to obesity researchers.

It’s a matter of being shaped like an apple or a pear.

The apple-shaped have bellies that are bigger than their hips. Any extra pounds tend to pile up on their waistlines. It’s the opposite for people who are pear-shaped. Extra weight likes to go to their hips and thighs.

Women are more likely to be pear-shaped – until they reach menopause when hormone levels change and weight gain heads for the abdomen.

People who are apples tend to be more at risk for certain health conditions. Their expanded bellies indicate visceral fat. This type of fat lies deeper within the abdominal cavity and has been linked to conditions like heart disease and diabetes.

Optimal numbers are based on gender, and individual height and weight doesn’t matter. Ideally, women need to keep their waists to 35 inches or less. The benchmark for men is 40 inches or less.

A screening chart from the National Institutes of Health combines BMI and waist circumference and shows how an apple shape raises health risks. Look at the chart and you’ll see how a BMI that indicates “overweight” puts you at increased risk. Combine “overweight” with a higher-than-optimal waist measurement and the level jumps to high risk.

3. Waist-to-hip ratio:

The size of your waist in relationship to your hips is another simple screening tool for future health risks.

For instance, a British medical study looked at waist-to-hip ratio and how it relates to heart disease. Have a big waistline and comparably big hips? That could be less of a risk factor than having a big stomach and small hips, according to the study.

Again, it’s about too much abdominal fat. In the study, researchers suggest that abdominal fat might alter hormones in a way that increases risk of heart disease. A large waistline in proportion to hips also has been shown to increase risk of uterine cancer, and has long been linked to Type 2 diabetes.

To determine your waist-to-hip ratio, measure your waistline and your hips. Divide the waistline measurement by the hip measurement – or go online for a waist-to-hip ratio calculator.

Ideally, results should be less than 0.85 for women and less than 0.9 for men, according to the World Health Organization.

Happy tracking!

There are a slew of health consequences that go along with carrying excess weight. It increases the risk of many problems, including heart disease, Type 2 diabetes, kidney disease and joint disorders. What’s more, research has linked weight and obesity to many types of cancers.

As part of one study, researchers analyzed 204 previously published studies to explore a possible link between weight gain, obesity, waist size and 38 different cancers. The results, which were released in March 2017, found “strong evidence” supporting a connection between these factors and 11 types of cancers, including breast, ovarian, kidney, pancreatic, colorectal and bone marrow.

A study released in 2016 had similar results, finding solid evidence of an increased risk for 13 types of cancer. Their list also included breast, kidney, ovarian and colorectal, as well as stomach, thyroid, uterine and multiple myeloma, a blood cancer. According to the chair of the group conducting this study, the 13 cancers they identified together account for 42 percent of all new cancer diagnoses.

When studying the link between weight and disease, researchers generally use a measurement known as Body Mass Index, or BMI, which is a ratio of weight to height. A BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 is considered a healthy weight. A BMI of 25 to 29.9 is overweight, 30 or above is obese and 40 or higher is morbidly obese. In general, the higher the BMI, the greater the risk for health problems, including the cancers studied.

There are several ways extra weight can affect the body and increase cancer risk. For one, it increases the levels of insulin and insulin growth factor-1. Higher levels of these substances may help some cancers develop. Also, obesity tends to affect immune system function, causing chronic, low-level inflammation, which is linked to an increase in cancer risk.

People who are overweight also release higher amounts of certain hormones like estrogen, which can feed the development of cancers such as breast and endometrial. Finally, fat cells themselves, might have an effect on the way the body regulates cancer cell growth.

If you need more convincing: The World Cancer Research Fund says excess weight contributes to as many as one out of three of all cancer-related deaths. Further, they estimate that about 20 percent of all cancers diagnosed in the US are related to body weight, physical inactivity, excess alcohol consumption and/or poor diet, and thus could be prevented.

Does this mean all I have to do is lose weight and I’ll be fine? Actually, there’s been more research done on the link between weight and cancer risk than on the effect on risk of losing weight. What is known is encouraging and suggests losing weight is beneficial.

Most researchers and health care professionals agree. Avoid gaining weight through your adult years. If you are already overweight, try not to gain any more, and it will certainly do you well to take off a few pounds. Losing weight will lower your risk for many cancers, and other health problems as well.